Version 3.7 notes :
General Changes :
- Revised subscription datapoints for WoW East, WoW West, Runescape, Lineage, Lineage II and Aion.
- Added Wen Dao and Journey to the West to the PCU chart.
- Changed Star Trek Online from SS to AA now that they went F2P.
- Added subscription datapoints for : Runescape, Eve Online, Star Wars The Old Republic and Star Trek Online.
- Changed the Accuracy Rating for SWTOR from A to B.
- Added EVE Online Global and China AA ( Active Accounts ), this includes the Global server Tranquility, the China server Serenity and the trial accounts.
- Added active account datapoints for : Star Trek Online
- Added Peak Concurrent Users datapoints for : EUdemons Online, Wen Dao, Journey to the West, Fantasy Westward Journey and EVE Online.
- Fixed misalignment problem with the 1m+ chart.
- Added vertical gridlines to improve the readability of the datapoint dates and easier spot misalignment problems.
- Added seperate accuracy rating for WoW East and WoW West.
- Corrected the name of Zhengtu to Zheng Tu.
- Made a seperate page for Accuracy and abbreviations and for Requirements and definitions.
- Revised the Requirements and definitions page.
- Revised and expanded the Glossary page.
- Made some cosmetic changes to the charts.
- Revised the Contributor section.
Internal Changes :
- Added various sources and information as notes in the dataset.
- Added EVE Online China to the dataset.
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Could you be so kind as to disclose where you got the SWTOR number? And the subscription date being measured?
ReplyDeleteI second that request. I looked around to see if I could find any numbers that corroborated your latest SWTOR data point and couldn't find anything.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing you're looking at X-fire trends and Server loads and assuming that they're indicators of subscription numbers. In which case you get a score of 4 out of 5 facepalms.
ReplyDeleteDo everyone a favor and stick to official numbers.
Those play indeed a large role in the estimate, I doubt we will be getting any official numbers again, and if we do, I am pretty confident that my estimate is in the same ballpark.
DeleteActually, there's nothing wrong with he did.
DeleteMy wife does what he did in her career as a scientist (she's a developmental biologist). I do what he did in my career as a CPA and Certified Fraud Examiner (including six years working as an analyst for the US Government (crooks don't want you to know what they did... They seldom give you direct data).
It is a conservative estimate. The number of subs will probably be lower. If you wish to know what it is based or other specifics, you will have to become a contributor.
ReplyDeleteI wish EA will release new numbers, even if they are declining, but I do not have high hopes. Altho EA Mythic did release WAR numbers after their subs more than halved, so it is possible.
They ( EA Bioware ) don't want to work with me directly, so I feel that I don't have a choice but to make an estimate if I have a solid base to work on, otherwise their peak sticks on the charts while their numbers clearly dropped.
I did forget to change the Accuracy Rating, which I have done now, from A to B.
Looking at the Xfire trends, you've got Aion somewhere near 2.5 million subs but Xfire is showing 6749 hours logged. You've put SWTOR down to 1.2 Million or so, but Xfire has 21048 hours logged. Which is strange when you think about it. Especially considering that SWTOR has roughly a third of the hours that WoW has (60515).
ReplyDeleteI think it is much more likely that Xfire/Server declines are a result of the % of the SWTOR population that is max level is increasing and thus are beginning to cut their play time back to levels more appropriate to an end game focused playstyle (that you see in games like WoW).
Hey, nice to have a constructive discussion about this.
ReplyDeleteI will try to explain how I incorporate Xfire numbers into my estimates or verifications of received numbers.
So, first of all, I don't use Xfire hours or minutes, it is a bad metric for the reason you already mentioned, players can play less, but not necessarily unsubscribe.
Therefore I use the other more stable metric, "Xfire users playing per day", this on a sub peak day/time ( saturday evening ), so same day/time every week, that is important.
Another thing that is important is not to use ratios from other games, but stick to the ratios from the game itself. Thus you need reliable datapoints from the past.
Then you need to check Xfire as a whole, generally I look at WoW and EVE ( because I have reliable numbers on them ) and check if the general Xfire MMORPG userbase is growing or shrinking.
Finally last important thing is not use xfire as the sole base of the estimate. There has to be another source to verify and complement the estimate, and you guessed it, in the case of SWTOR it is serverload.
Now about Aion, this number is a global number on my charts and xfire is mainly western based. Aion in the west is indeed quite a bit smaller than SWTOR, the bulk of their subs is from China and South Korea.
This is shown in the charts, "Aion Global" and "SWTOR West".
I also took into account the 3 new Asia Pacific servers from SWTOR, but they have only a small impact on the overall picture.
I think your method is solid and would hold up in Court as a credible, reliable indirect method. And while many people don't like indirect methods, they work and they're far more reliable than those who have emotionally invested positions of a game will credit.
DeleteAnd barring someone finding a better way, your indirect method is the best number in the field.