Just letting you know I am working on it :)
Here a few teasers :
I just got the Q4 quarterly report from EA, and they report 1,3m subs, so I will add this.
My latest estimate of 1,41m subs was pretty generous, however I always try to be conservative in my estimates, whether they are downward or upward.
What it does show me is that the Xfire numbers are a good indication to base estimates off, purely based on Xfire I would have estimated 1,2m.
CCP has send me new EVE numbers, they look good, 361k subs, so they can celebrate their 9th anniversary knowing they are back on the rise.
I also added various other datapoints and some improvements to the site, like a twitter follow link.
So expect v3.9 soon.
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The Eve Online data before 2011 looks... wrong.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what you mean.
ReplyDeleteThere are 2 different EVE Online datapoint series.
The blue circle series are the actual subscriber numbers on the Tranquility server, which are correct afaik, but the latest 361k datapoint is not on there yet.
The brown square series are Active Accounts including the Trial accounts and the Chinese server and I have no datapoints for that before 2011, so what you see is just a straight connection between release and the first datapoint I have around 2011.
Any news about TERA? I haven't seen any data so far even if the game's out in Korea and Japan and now in US/EU too.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the population-statistics and server-load i can not believe SWTOR has 1.4M subscribers.
ReplyDeleteTERA Online seems to have a pretty decent subscription count. It wouldn't surprise me to see them in the 500k - 1M range. SWTOR seems to have dropped a LOT recently.
ReplyDeleteTERA has 15 servers in S Korea, 3 in Japan, 11 in NA and 10 in EU.
ReplyDeleteEven giving them 10k population each wouldn't hit the 500k players mark.
As for korean info you can check it here along some nice info:
http://www.gametrics.com/news/News02_List.aspx
Servers hold more than 10k total players. Most servers reach capacity at around 3-5k concurrent players, and that's still with a minority of the population actually trying to log in. My server in TERA is a low-pop server and it has over 950 guilds, many of which have hundreds of players.
DeleteIn Essenia EU (most populated server by far in EU) you can check that there's about 5k players in the first two pages of guild listing. Just throwing some numbers:
Delete871 guilds in 52 pages
at page 1 the average membership is 215 members
at page 2 the average membership is 125 members
at page 4 the average membership is 70 members
at page 7 the average membership is 43 members
at page 13 the average membership is 21 members
at page 26 the average membership is 8 members
So I would say that 10k players on average is pretty generous but maybe 15k would be more accurate for most populated servers.
Any news on v3.9?
ReplyDelete